If you’re looking for real NFL Divisional Round betting predictions for moneyline, over/under and spread, you’re in the right spot.
FTN’s NFL simulation model ran 10,000 simulations for every Divisional Round Weekend matchup, projecting win probabilities, moneyline edges and upset likelihoods so you know where the value actually is.
With that, let’s dive into this week’s games and see what the FTN betting model is projecting.
Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos
Best Edge: Broncos +0.5
The Divisional Round kicks off with a true pick’em. While the Broncos win over 60% of our simulations, most of the betting public is backing the Bills. Buffalo is coming off an impressive win last week, where Josh Allen once again reminded everyone why he’s the best quarterback remaining in the playoffs. The Jaguars had the better roster on paper and held advantages in most of the underlying metrics, but the Bills ultimately advanced on the strength of their quarterback.
This matchup sets up similarly to last week for Buffalo. Denver had the better regular season, finishing seventh in DVOA compared to Buffalo’s eighth, and the Broncos hold a meaningful edge on defense. That said, the Bills’ defense played well in the Wild Card Round, forcing two turnovers and holding Jacksonville to just 6.6 yards per pass attempt. The one concern is on the ground, where Buffalo was still vulnerable, an issue they’ll need to clean up against Denver this week.
As strong as the Broncos defense is, Denver’s offense will still need to put points on the board. You can slow down Allen, but you rarely stop him entirely, which means this game will come down to Bo Nix’s ability to keep pace. Nix was inconsistent during the regular season, but he also delivered some of his best performances in the biggest spots, including games against Kansas City and Green Bay. If he plays to that level, the Broncos can win, which is exactly what the model is projecting. Still, given the quarterback matchup, it’s hard to back Denver with complete confidence.
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Best Edge: Seahawks -7.5
The 49ers face their divisional rival Seahawks for the third time this season. The teams split their two regular-season meetings, with each winning once, but both games were defensive battles. San Francisco took the Week 1 matchup, but most people will remember what happened in Week 18, when Seattle’s defense completely shut down the Niners, holding them to just three points. San Francisco averaged barely four yards per play and was thoroughly controlled on that side of the ball.
Based on that performance, it’s easy to see why the Seahawks are favored by a touchdown. The 49ers lost George Kittle last week, and with Ricky Pearsall still sidelined, their offensive options are limited. Unless Brock Purdy plays at a much higher level than he did in Week 18, it’s hard to envision San Francisco generating much offense. And that game was no fluke. Seattle fields a historically strong defense, ranking first in defensive DVOA against both the run and the pass. There are simply no weak spots, and you have to be nearly perfect to move the ball against them.
San Francisco’s best path to staying competitive is by slowing down Seattle’s offense. Sam Darnold has been inconsistent down the stretch, and the Seahawks’ offense didn’t exactly light it up in Week 18, averaging just over five yards per play. They advanced largely on the strength of a rushing attack that had struggled for most of the 2025 season. While the 49ers’ run defense is a vulnerability, they did just hold Saquon Barkley to 4.1 yards per carry. Robert Saleh has this unit playing fast and with confidence, and despite a long list of injuries, the 49ers are getting their best defensive football at the right time.
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots
Best Edge: Patriots -3
New England’s offense has been elite all season, ranking third in offensive DVOA, and Drake Maye is a legitimate MVP candidate. However, the Patriots have not faced a defense like Houston’s. By DVOA, New England played the easiest offensive schedule in the league, while the Texans finished as the second-best defense in football. Something has to give in this AFC showdown. Our model leans toward the Patriots, who win 68% of simulations, but this sets up as a far tougher test than what they’ve seen so far.
The Patriots cruised last week, but it wasn’t Maye’s cleanest performance. He threw an interception and took five sacks, yet still moved the ball efficiently, in large part because of his legs. Maye ran 10 times for 66 yards, and that mobility could be a key factor again. While Houston has an excellent pass rush, they’ve struggled to contain scrambling quarterbacks, allowing the seventh-most scramble yards and the highest yards per carry on QB scrambles this season. Those plays turned into 16 first downs, tied for the fifth-most in the league. Houston may need to spy Maye, who led the NFL in first downs on scrambles, because throwing into this secondary won’t be easy. The Texans rank second in DVOA against the pass and feature multiple All-Pro defensive backs.
The other side of the ball is just as intriguing. C.J. Stroud had a brutal turnover-filled game last week, but outside of those mistakes, Houston’s offense moved the ball well. Woody Marks was dominant on the ground, becoming the first running back since 2000 to post positive yardage on every carry with at least 18 attempts in a playoff game. Stroud also averaged a strong 7.8 yards per attempt and delivered several big-time throws. Nico Collins is dealing with a concussion and could miss this game, but even without him, Houston may have an edge against a Patriots defense that finished just 23rd in defensive DVOA. New England played well on that side of the ball last week, but the Texans bring a much more dangerous offense than the Chargers.
Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears
Best Edge: Over 48.5
Of all the games this weekend, this one projects as the tightest. The Rams advance in 59% of our simulations, making it even closer than Bills-Broncos. Given how well Chicago played last week, it’s easy to see why this matchup is expected to be close, even though the Rams have been the better team over the course of the season.
The concern for Los Angeles is their defense. The Rams have looked dominant for much of the year, but cracks have started to show in recent weeks. They struggled defensively throughout December and then surrendered 31 points to Carolina in the Wild Card Round. Since Week 13, they’ve allowed the sixth-highest rate of explosive pass plays and rank just 22nd in defensive DVOA over that span. Chicago’s offense has been inconsistent, but when it’s clicking, it’s among the most explosive units in the league. Since Week 12, the Bears rank seventh in explosive pass rate and third in rushing DVOA. If the Rams’ defense doesn’t tighten up, this game has real shootout potential.
Fortunately for Los Angeles, their offense is in a great spot. Matthew Stafford continued his MVP-level play last week, throwing for 304 yards and three touchdowns. Chicago finished 24th in DVOA against the pass, making this a clear mismatch. Even in their Wild Card win, the Bears struggled to slow down Green Bay’s passing game, with Jordan Love leading all quarterbacks in EPA per dropback. As the model suggests, the best bet in this matchup may be the over 48.5, as both teams should be able to move the ball with ease.